Alcoa Corporation (AA)
POSITIVEPrice
$45.26
Market Cap
$11.94B
Fundamental
74
Technical
85
Composite
77
AI Analysis
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Overview
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$12.83B
Net Income
$1.12B
Free Cash Flow
$683M
Total Equity
$6.12B
Total Liabilities
$9.94B
Current Ratio
1.44
Interest Coverage
6.73
Debt/EBITDA
9.34
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Fair Value Estimation
Fairly ValuedFair Value
$45.22
Current Price
$45.26
Margin of Safety
-0.1%
Fair Value Range
$29.40 - $61.05
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
10.29
ROE
18.3%
P/B Ratio
1.95
P/FCF
17.49
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
6.8%
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
6.8%
WACC
7.4%
ROIC − WACC
-0.6 pp
ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (20)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 20.60%
- ROIC 6.8%
- P/FCF 17.49
- P/B Ratio 1.95
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 8.3%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 19.2%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 6.7%
- Analyst Consensus 77% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 28.8%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.06
- Share Dilution 0.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (5)
- Price CAGR 4.89%
- CapEx intensity
- Debt/EBITDA
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Net Margin Trend 8.7% vs 8.7%
Unavailable (3)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Price Chart
Technical Indicators
RSI (14)
38.15
SMA 50
$57.88
SMA 200
$56.09
MACD
0.60
Volatility
3.4%
Momentum (12m)
51.0%
RSI 38.1, SMA trend bullish, momentum 51.0%.
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. William F. Oplinger | President, CEO & Director | 58 |
| Ms. Molly S. Beerman | Executive VP & CFO | 61 |
| Mr. Matthew T. Reed | Executive VP & COO | 52 |
| Mr. Andrew J.A Hastings | Executive VP & General Counsel | 50 |
| Mr. Renato Bacchi C.F.A. | Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer | 48 |
| Ms. Tammi A. Jones | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 45 |
| Ms. Heather Hudak | Senior Vice President of Tax | - |
| Mr. Louis Langlois CPA | Senior Vice President of Treasury & Capital Markets | - |
| Mr. Andrew Estel | Senior Vice President of Strategy | - |
| Ms. Emily Olson | Executive VP & Chief External Affairs Officer | - |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
1
Shareholder Rights Risk
2
Latest News
Recent headlines for AA, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 16d agoNEGATIVEAlcoa Shares Tumble After Cyclone Cuts Into Alumina Output
Alcoa Corp. has lowered its alumina production forecast due to operational issues at its Australian refinery, which have impacted output. This development overshadows a quarter where increased aluminum prices boosted the company's revenue. The production cut signals potential supply chain disruptions and operational challenges that could affect future earnings. Investors will be closely monitoring the resolution of these issues and their impact on Alcoa's market position and profitability.
- 6/30/2026POSITIVEAlcoa Bets on Aluminum With $5.6 Billion South32 Deal
Alcoa Corp. is set to acquire South32 Ltd.'s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets across Australia, Brazil, and South Africa for up to $5.6 billion. This strategic move significantly bolsters Alcoa's standing as a global leader in aluminum production, anticipating robust long-term demand for the metal. The acquisition is expected to enhance Alcoa's integrated supply chain and market position, offering investors a strengthened profile in the aluminum sector.
- 6/10/2026NEGATIVEAlcoa Shares Drop as Firm Warns Alumina Unit Is ‘Underwater’
Alcoa Corp. shares experienced a significant decline following a stark warning from a company executive regarding its alumina business. The division is reportedly 'underwater,' incurring losses attributed to ongoing energy disruptions and the critical near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These geopolitical and operational challenges are directly impacting Alcoa's profitability in a key segment. Investors are likely reassessing the company's near-term earnings potential and operational resilience in light of these adverse conditions.
- 4/19/2026NEUTRALAluminum giant Alcoa to sell dormant smelter to Bitcoin miner NYDIG: Report
Alcoa Corporation is reportedly in advanced talks to sell its dormant Massena East aluminum smelter to New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), a Bitcoin mining firm. This potential transaction highlights a growing trend of US industrial sites being repurposed for energy-intensive digital asset operations and AI data centers. While the sale of an idle asset could be viewed positively for Alcoa's balance sheet, the strategic implications for the broader aluminum market and Alcoa's future operational focus remain unclear. The deal's impact on Alcoa's stock will depend on the sale price and how it aligns with the company's long-term strategy.
- 4/16/2026NEUTRALAlcoa Reports Q1 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcript
Alcoa Corporation released its Q1 2026 earnings call transcript on April 16, 2026. The document provides a detailed account of the company's financial performance and strategic discussions during the quarter. While the transcript itself is informational, it does not contain immediate financial figures or forward-looking statements that would directly impact the stock price. Investors will need to analyze the content of the transcript for specific insights into operational efficiency, market conditions, and future guidance that could affect Alcoa's valuation.
- 3/30/2026POSITIVEAlcoa Surges 11% After Iran Claims Aluminum Plant Attacks
Alcoa Corporation experienced an 11% surge in its stock price following reports of attacks on an aluminum plant in Iran. While the direct link to Alcoa's operations is not explicitly detailed, the market appears to be reacting to potential supply disruptions in the global aluminum market. Prediction markets indicate less than a 50% probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening before June, suggesting ongoing geopolitical tensions could impact energy and commodity flows. Investors are likely factoring in potential price increases for aluminum due to these supply-side concerns, driving the significant intraday gain for Alcoa.
via Markets Gazette