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Alcoa Corporation (AA)

POSITIVE
Basic MaterialsAluminumUnited States

Price

$68.77

Market Cap

$18.15B

Fundamental

70

Technical

75

Composite

72

AI Analysis

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Overview

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$12.83B

Net Income

$1.12B

Free Cash Flow

$683M

Total Equity

$6.12B

Total Liabilities

$9.94B

Current Ratio

1.44

Interest Coverage

6.73

Debt/EBITDA

9.34

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Fair Value Estimation

Overvalued

Fair Value

$51.86

Current Price

$68.77

Margin of Safety

-32.6%

Fair Value Range

$33.71 - $70.02

Estimation Methods

Analyst Target:$82.25
DCF:$32.51
PE-based:$45.24
Graham Growth:$63.49
EPV:$23.95
Analyst Consensus:Buy (17B / 5H / 1S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-9.00%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

15.63

ROE

18.3%

P/B Ratio

2.97

P/FCF

26.57

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

6.8%

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

6.8%

WACC

8.6%

ROIC − WACC

-1.8 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (20)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 20.60%
  • Price CAGR 9.37%
  • ROIC 6.8%
  • P/FCF 26.57
  • P/B Ratio 2.97
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 8.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 16.3%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.7%
  • Analyst Consensus 74% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 34.3%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.06
  • Share Dilution 0.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (5)

  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 8.7% vs 8.7%

Unavailable (3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Price Chart

Technical Indicators

RSI (14)

47.02

SMA 50

$69.07

SMA 200

$53.29

MACD

-1.08

Volatility

3.4%

Momentum (12m)

138.3%

RSI 47.0, SMA trend bullish, momentum 138.3%.

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.06

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

0.0%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. William F. OplingerPresident, CEO & Director58
Ms. Molly S. BeermanExecutive VP & CFO61
Mr. Matthew T. ReedExecutive VP & COO52
Mr. Andrew J.A HastingsExecutive VP & General Counsel50
Mr. Renato Bacchi C.F.A.Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer48
Ms. Tammi A. JonesExecutive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer45
Ms. Heather HudakSenior Vice President of Tax-
Mr. Louis Langlois CPASenior Vice President of Treasury & Capital Markets-
Mr. Andrew EstelSenior Vice President of Strategy-
Ms. Emily OlsonExecutive VP & Chief External Affairs Officer-

Audit Risk

5

Board Risk

1

Compensation Risk

1

Shareholder Rights Risk

2

Latest News

Recent headlines for AA, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 7d agoNEGATIVE
    Alcoa Shares Drop as Firm Warns Alumina Unit Is ‘Underwater’

    Alcoa Corp. shares experienced a significant decline following a stark warning from a company executive regarding its alumina business. The division is reportedly 'underwater,' incurring losses attributed to ongoing energy disruptions and the critical near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These geopolitical and operational challenges are directly impacting Alcoa's profitability in a key segment. Investors are likely reassessing the company's near-term earnings potential and operational resilience in light of these adverse conditions.

  • 4/19/2026NEUTRAL
    Aluminum giant Alcoa to sell dormant smelter to Bitcoin miner NYDIG: Report

    Alcoa Corporation is reportedly in advanced talks to sell its dormant Massena East aluminum smelter to New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), a Bitcoin mining firm. This potential transaction highlights a growing trend of US industrial sites being repurposed for energy-intensive digital asset operations and AI data centers. While the sale of an idle asset could be viewed positively for Alcoa's balance sheet, the strategic implications for the broader aluminum market and Alcoa's future operational focus remain unclear. The deal's impact on Alcoa's stock will depend on the sale price and how it aligns with the company's long-term strategy.

  • 4/16/2026NEUTRAL
    Alcoa Reports Q1 2026 Results: Full Earnings Call Transcript

    Alcoa Corporation released its Q1 2026 earnings call transcript on April 16, 2026. The document provides a detailed account of the company's financial performance and strategic discussions during the quarter. While the transcript itself is informational, it does not contain immediate financial figures or forward-looking statements that would directly impact the stock price. Investors will need to analyze the content of the transcript for specific insights into operational efficiency, market conditions, and future guidance that could affect Alcoa's valuation.

  • 3/30/2026POSITIVE
    Alcoa Surges 11% After Iran Claims Aluminum Plant Attacks

    Alcoa Corporation experienced an 11% surge in its stock price following reports of attacks on an aluminum plant in Iran. While the direct link to Alcoa's operations is not explicitly detailed, the market appears to be reacting to potential supply disruptions in the global aluminum market. Prediction markets indicate less than a 50% probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening before June, suggesting ongoing geopolitical tensions could impact energy and commodity flows. Investors are likely factoring in potential price increases for aluminum due to these supply-side concerns, driving the significant intraday gain for Alcoa.

  • 3/17/2026POSITIVE
    Alcoa Draws New Aluminum Orders as Gulf States Curb Production

    Alcoa Corp., a leading US aluminum producer, is experiencing increased buyer interest due to production cuts in the Middle East. This situation presents an opportunity for Alcoa to secure new orders and potentially increase market share as global supply dynamics shift. The curtailment of production by Gulf States is creating a demand vacuum that Alcoa is well-positioned to fill, potentially leading to improved sales volumes and pricing power for the company. Investors may see this as a positive development for Alcoa's future revenue and profitability.

  • 3/5/2026POSITIVE
    Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Alcoa Stock In The Last 5 Years

    Owning Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock over the past five years would have generated significant returns for investors. Analyzing the period from March 5, 2021, to March 5, 2026, the stock has demonstrated notable resilience and growth potential. While specific percentage return details are not provided in the excerpt, an article title quantifying gains implies a positive performance. This suggests that, despite the inherent volatility of the aluminum sector, Alcoa has successfully created shareholder value, potentially due to effective cost management, sound market strategies, or a favorable commodity price environment during part of the period.

via Markets Gazette

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This platform is for educational purposes only. It does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice. All scores, valuations, and signals are based on automated analysis of publicly available data that may be incomplete or inaccurate. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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